The market strongly favors September 20 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $32.7M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 20 | 100% | - | $557K |
| 2 | September 25 | 100% | - | $734K |
| 3 | September 30 | 100% | - | $2.5M |
| 4 | October 7 | 100% | - | $524K |
| 5 | October 15 | 100% | - | $2.1M |
| 6 | October 12 | 100% | - | $2.0M |
| 7 | October 5 | 100% | - | $135K |
| 8 | October 9 | 100% | - | $345K |
| 9 | October 24 | 100% | - | $1.9M |
| 10 | October 22 | 100% | - | $3.9M |
| 11 | October 17 | 100% | - | $903K |
| 12 | October 28 | 100% | - | $1.9M |
| 13 | October 16 | 100% | - | $428K |
| 14 | October 18 | 100% | - | $657K |
| 15 | October 31 | 99% | +1% | $8.9M |
| 16 | November 2 | 98% | +2% | $649K |
| 17 | November 4 | 94% | +7% | $307K |
| 18 | November 8 | 74% | +34% | $1.2M |
| 19 | November 15 | 54% | +85% | $841K |
| 20 | November 22 BEST VALUE | 44% | +130% | $275K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”...
This prediction market tracks whether US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? will occur, with $32.7M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: September 20 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $711K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 02, 2026 at 09:55 UTC, the leading outcome is September 20 at 100% probability, with $32.7M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $32.7M, with $711K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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