Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

Ends Nov 04, 2026 · Volume: $25K · 24h: $26K · Updated Oct 12, 2026 at 22:55 UTC
PredScope Signal: Leaning

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate leads at 62%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.

🔥 Surging 24h volume is 104% of total — extremely active trading
# Outcome Probability If Right Volume
1 No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 62% +62% $473
2 No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate BEST VALUE 32% +214% $13K
3 Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate 3% +3233% $8K
4 Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate 2% +4551% $4K
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Quick Math — $100 on No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate
Buy Price
$0.62
If Right
+$62.34
Return
+62%
If wrong, you lose your $100 investment. Prediction markets carry risk.

The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.

Market Analysis

This prediction market tracks whether Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms? will occur, with $25K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.

Traders lean toward No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate at 62%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.

Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $26K traded in the last 24 hours alone (104% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.

This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.

Total Volume
$25K
Liquidity
$908K

FAQ

What are the current odds for Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms??

As of Oct 12, 2026 at 22:55 UTC, the leading outcome is No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate at 62% probability, with $25K in total trading volume on Polymarket.

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