No clear favorite. 1520 leads at just 30%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1520 | 30% | +239% | $14K |
| 2 | 1510 | 26% | +285% | $34K |
| 3 | 1540 | 10% | +852% | $6K |
| 4 | 1530 | 10% | +900% | $8K |
| 5 | 1550 BEST VALUE | 8% | +1233% | $10K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this ma...
This prediction market tracks whether Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30? will occur, with $72K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — 1520 leads at only 30% across 5 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $25K traded in the last 24 hours alone (35% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 06, 2026 at 14:45 UTC, the leading outcome is 1520 at 30% probability, with $72K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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