No clear favorite. June 30 leads at just 8%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30 | 8% | +1207% | $57K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.612850° N, 36.062680° E in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET....
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...? will occur, with $108K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — June 30 leads at only 8% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Recent trading volume of $13K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-05-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 16, 2026 at 05:55 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30 at 8% probability, with $108K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $108K, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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