No clear favorite. July 31 leads at just 5%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 31 | 5% | +2005% | $28K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The int...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia capture Serhiivka by...? will occur, with $38K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — July 31 leads at only 5% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours alone (55% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-05-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 18, 2026 at 08:15 UTC, the leading outcome is July 31 at 5% probability, with $38K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms