The market strongly favors September 30 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 30 | 100% | - | $31K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Orikhiv by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Ori...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...? will occur, with $405K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: September 30 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $13K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 06, 2026 at 03:45 UTC, the leading outcome is September 30 at 100% probability, with $405K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $405K, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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