Market is split — June 30, 2027 at 58%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30, 2027 | 58% | +72% | - |
| 2 | December 31 | 40% | +150% | $273K |
| 3 | September 30 | 30% | +233% | $43K |
| 4 | July 15 BEST VALUE | 26% | +277% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. O...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...? will occur, with $358K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with June 30, 2027 leading at just 58%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $296K traded in the last 24 hours alone (83% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 30, 2026 at 17:05 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 58% probability, with $358K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $358K, with $296K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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