The market strongly favors September 14 at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 14 | 94% | +6% | $242 |
| 2 | September 30 | 94% | +6% | $91 |
| 3 | September 9 | 94% | +7% | $805 |
| 4 | September 11 | 94% | +7% | $2K |
| 5 | September 24 | 94% | +7% | $565 |
| 6 | September 4 | 93% | +7% | $2K |
| 7 | September 7 | 92% | +9% | $765 |
| 8 | September 17 | 92% | +9% | $805 |
| 9 | September 21 | 91% | +10% | $115 |
| 10 | September 23 | 90% | +10% | $695 |
| 11 | September 28 | 90% | +10% | $31 |
| 12 | September 8 | 89% | +12% | $123 |
| 13 | September 5 | 88% | +13% | $1K |
| 14 | September 10 | 88% | +14% | $654 |
| 15 | September 16 | 88% | +14% | $1K |
| 16 | September 26 | 88% | +14% | $434 |
| 17 | September 12 | 88% | +14% | $174 |
| 18 | September 15 | 88% | +14% | $172 |
| 19 | September 19 | 86% | +16% | $216 |
| 20 | September 20 BEST VALUE | 86% | +16% | $252 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes a public statement in which he insults any non-fictional individual on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Trump publicly insult someone on...? will occur, with $17K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: September 14 is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $9K traded in the last 24 hours alone (50% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 04, 2026 at 06:55 UTC, the leading outcome is September 14 at 94% probability, with $17K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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