The market strongly favors July 1 at 99%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 1 | 99% | +1% | $6K |
| 2 | July 3 | 94% | +7% | $561 |
| 3 | July 4 | 94% | +7% | $2K |
| 4 | July 7 | 94% | +7% | $134 |
| 5 | July 6 | 93% | +8% | $1K |
| 6 | July 11 | 92% | +8% | $50 |
| 7 | July 8 | 92% | +8% | $17 |
| 8 | July 9 | 92% | +8% | $87 |
| 9 | July 21 | 92% | +9% | $61 |
| 10 | July 13 | 92% | +9% | $35 |
| 11 | July 2 | 92% | +9% | $667 |
| 12 | July 28 | 92% | +9% | $118 |
| 13 | July 31 | 92% | +9% | $100 |
| 14 | July 18 | 92% | +9% | $1 |
| 15 | July 27 | 92% | +9% | $23 |
| 16 | July 25 | 92% | +9% | - |
| 17 | July 10 | 92% | +9% | $75 |
| 18 | July 20 | 92% | +9% | - |
| 19 | July 15 BEST VALUE | 91% | +10% | $24 |
| 20 | July 17 | 91% | +10% | $97 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative mann...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Trump publicly insult someone on...? will occur, with $17K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: July 1 is priced at 99%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $17K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 02, 2026 at 01:15 UTC, the leading outcome is July 1 at 99% probability, with $17K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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