The market strongly favors August 1 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | August 1 | 100% | - | $1K |
| 2 | August 3 | 100% | - | $2K |
| 3 | August 19 | 92% | +9% | $2K |
| 4 | August 25 | 92% | +9% | $3K |
| 5 | August 5 | 91% | +10% | $4K |
| 6 | August 28 | 90% | +12% | $2K |
| 7 | August 26 | 88% | +13% | $2K |
| 8 | August 29 | 87% | +15% | $1K |
| 9 | August 18 | 86% | +16% | $2K |
| 10 | August 16 | 86% | +16% | $50 |
| 11 | August 20 | 86% | +16% | $38 |
| 12 | August 14 | 86% | +17% | $45 |
| 13 | August 27 | 86% | +17% | $75 |
| 14 | August 4 | 85% | +18% | $735 |
| 15 | August 22 | 85% | +18% | $25 |
| 16 | August 13 | 84% | +18% | $61 |
| 17 | August 21 | 84% | +18% | $81 |
| 18 | August 10 BEST VALUE | 84% | +19% | $78 |
| 19 | August 17 | 84% | +19% | $1K |
| 20 | August 23 | 84% | +19% | $115 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes a public statement in which he insults any non-fictional individual on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Trump publicly insult someone on...? will occur, with $30K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: August 1 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (44% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 04, 2026 at 12:05 UTC, the leading outcome is August 1 at 100% probability, with $30K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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