The market strongly favors July 31 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 31 | 100% | - | $529K |
| 2 | October 31 | 39% | +156% | $535 |
| 3 | September 30 | 24% | +317% | $18K |
| 4 | August 31 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1639% | $121K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified da...
This prediction market tracks whether 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? will occur, with $801K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: July 31 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $16K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 07, 2026 at 10:15 UTC, the leading outcome is July 31 at 100% probability, with $801K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $801K, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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