No clear favorite. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? leads at just 7%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $23.4M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 7% | +1242% | $23.4M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise,...
As of May 15, 2026 at 00:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? at 7% probability, with $23.4M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $23.4M, with $335K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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