The market strongly favors July 18 at 95%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 18 | 95% | +5% | $2K |
| 2 | July 20 | 93% | +8% | $1K |
| 3 | July 22 | 83% | +20% | $4K |
| 4 | July 25 | 80% | +24% | $10K |
| 5 | July 31 | 68% | +46% | $8K |
| 6 | August 15 | 52% | +90% | $2K |
| 7 | August 31 BEST VALUE | 46% | +117% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “...
This prediction market tracks whether Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? will occur, with $30K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: July 18 is priced at 95%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $30K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 17, 2026 at 13:25 UTC, the leading outcome is July 18 at 95% probability, with $30K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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