The market strongly favors July 18 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $35.5M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 18 | 100% | - | $246K |
| 2 | July 20 | 100% | - | $351K |
| 3 | July 22 | 100% | - | $953K |
| 4 | July 25 | 100% | - | $2.7M |
| 5 | July 31 | 100% | - | $3.4M |
| 6 | August 15 | 100% | - | $2.5M |
| 7 | August 31 | 100% | - | $3.3M |
| 8 | July 23 | 100% | - | $279K |
| 9 | July 24 | 100% | - | $773K |
| 10 | July 26 | 100% | - | $1.1M |
| 11 | July 27 | 100% | - | $539K |
| 12 | July 28 | 100% | - | $393K |
| 13 | July 29 | 100% | - | $648K |
| 14 | July 30 | 100% | - | $553K |
| 15 | August 9 | 100% | - | $2.4M |
| 16 | August 2 | 100% | - | $3.0M |
| 17 | August 1 | 100% | - | $1.4M |
| 18 | August 3 | 100% | - | $1.1M |
| 19 | August 4 | 100% | - | $862K |
| 20 | September 30 | 100% | - | $3.3M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “...
This prediction market tracks whether Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? will occur, with $35.5M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: July 18 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $663K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 16, 2026 at 08:45 UTC, the leading outcome is July 18 at 100% probability, with $35.5M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $35.5M, with $663K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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