This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fabiano Caruana | 40% | $174K |
| 2 | Praggnanandhaa R | 18% | $126K |
| 3 | Javokhir Sindarov | 17% | $143K |
| 4 | Hikaru Nakamura | 11% | $213K |
| 5 | Wei Yi | 8% | $251K |
| 6 | Anish Giri | 4% | $140K |
| 7 | Matthias Bluebaum | 3% | $183K |
| 8 | Andrey Esipenko | 2% | $550K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 21:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Fabiano Caruana at 40% probability, with $1.8M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.8M, with $224K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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