The market strongly favors Kuomintang (KMT) at 90%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kuomintang (KMT) | 90% | +12% | $79K |
| 2 | Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) | 11% | +785% | $56K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or mag...
This prediction market tracks whether 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner will occur, with $205K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Kuomintang (KMT) is priced at 90%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $19K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-29. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 05, 2026 at 05:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Kuomintang (KMT) at 90% probability, with $205K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $205K, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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