The market strongly favors Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 94% | +7% | $25K |
| 2 | Marine Le Pen | 92% | +9% | $35K |
| 3 | Édouard Philippe | 89% | +12% | $20K |
| 4 | Nathalie Arthaud | 88% | +14% | $8K |
| 5 | Raphaël Glucksmann | 85% | +18% | $21K |
| 6 | Fabien Roussel | 80% | +25% | $5K |
| 7 | Éric Zemmour | 80% | +26% | $20K |
| 8 | David Lisnard | 74% | +36% | $23K |
| 9 | Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 65% | +54% | $3K |
| 10 | Bruno Retailleau | 60% | +65% | $18K |
| 11 | Marine Tondelier | 32% | +212% | $13K |
| 12 | Dominique de Villepin | 30% | +228% | $21K |
| 13 | François Hollande | 30% | +233% | $37K |
| 14 | Sarah Knafo | 30% | +233% | $38K |
| 15 | François Ruffin | 24% | +317% | $3K |
| 16 | François Asselineau | 23% | +335% | $15K |
| 17 | Gabriel Attal | 22% | +355% | $18K |
| 18 | Xavier Bertrand | 12% | +770% | $8K |
| 19 | Matthieu Pigasse | 10% | +852% | $14K |
| 20 | Bernard Cazeneuve BEST VALUE | 9% | +987% | $12K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to...
This prediction market tracks whether 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? will occur, with $535K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Jean-Luc Mélenchon is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $17K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-07-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 12, 2026 at 00:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 94% probability, with $535K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $535K, with $17K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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