The market strongly favors Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 96%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 96% | +5% | $7K |
| 2 | Marine Le Pen | 92% | +9% | $16K |
| 3 | Nathalie Arthaud | 88% | +14% | $5K |
| 4 | Édouard Philippe | 82% | +21% | $12K |
| 5 | Éric Zemmour | 82% | +23% | $3K |
| 6 | Bruno Retailleau | 71% | +41% | $7K |
| 7 | Fabien Roussel | 68% | +47% | $3K |
| 8 | Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 54% | +85% | $576 |
| 9 | Dominique de Villepin | 50% | +102% | $6K |
| 10 | David Lisnard | 45% | +122% | $5K |
| 11 | Raphaël Glucksmann | 35% | +186% | $5K |
| 12 | François Ruffin | 34% | +199% | $1K |
| 13 | Gabriel Attal | 32% | +217% | $6K |
| 14 | Sarah Knafo | 28% | +264% | $4K |
| 15 | Marine Tondelier | 26% | +277% | $2K |
| 16 | François Hollande | 24% | +317% | $5K |
| 17 | Juan Branco | 14% | +614% | $4K |
| 18 | Michel-Edouard Leclerc | 12% | +700% | $5K |
| 19 | Matthieu Pigasse | 12% | +770% | $10K |
| 20 | François Bayrou BEST VALUE | 11% | +826% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to...
This prediction market tracks whether 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? will occur, with $184K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Jean-Luc Mélenchon is priced at 96%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $21K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-04-17. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 07, 2026 at 19:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 96% probability, with $184K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $184K, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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