Petro - Colombia President leads at 60%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petro - Colombia President | 60% | +65% | $108K |
| 2 | Starmer - UK PM | 19% | +426% | $45K |
| 3 | Díaz-Canel - Cuba President BEST VALUE | 10% | +926% | $29K |
| 4 | Netanyahu - Israel PM | 2% | +4551% | $33K |
| 5 | Sánchez - Spanish PM | 2% | +4900% | $37K |
| 6 | None before 2027 | 1% | +7900% | $47K |
| 7 | Putin - Russia President | 1% | +8991% | $32K |
| 8 | Takaichi - Japan PM | 1% | +12400% | $25K |
| 9 | Trump - USA President | 1% | +14186% | $26K |
| 10 | Lecornu - France PM | 1% | +16567% | $28K |
| 11 | Merz - German Chancellor | 1% | +16567% | $30K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the o...
This prediction market tracks whether Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) will occur, with $786K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Petro - Colombia President at 60%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $12K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 11, 2026 at 02:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Petro - Colombia President at 60% probability, with $786K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $786K, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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