No clear favorite. 0-20 leads at just 35%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0-20 | 35% | +186% | $8K |
| 2 | 20-40 | 34% | +199% | $3K |
| 3 | 40-60 | 20% | +413% | $3K |
| 4 | 60-80 BEST VALUE | 7% | +1329% | $3K |
| 5 | 80+ | 2% | +5305% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026. If the reporte...
This prediction market tracks whether Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August? will occur, with $18K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — 0-20 leads at only 35% across 5 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $10K traded in the last 24 hours alone (57% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 04, 2026 at 19:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 0-20 at 35% probability, with $18K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms