The market strongly favors July 31 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $17.2M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 31 | 100% | - | $8.9M |
| 2 | August 14 | 100% | - | $1.6M |
| 3 | August 31 | 100% | - | $1.9M |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market c...
This prediction market tracks whether US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) will occur, with $17.2M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: July 31 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $41K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 13, 2026 at 18:05 UTC, the leading outcome is July 31 at 100% probability, with $17.2M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $17.2M, with $41K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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