August 31 leads at 64%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | August 31 | 64% | +56% | $1K |
| 2 | August 14 | 42% | +135% | $1K |
| 3 | July 31 | 24% | +326% | $8K |
| 4 | July 24 | 12% | +700% | $1K |
| 5 | July 18 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $18K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market c...
This prediction market tracks whether US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) will occur, with $30K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
Traders lean toward August 31 at 64%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $30K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 16, 2026 at 00:35 UTC, the leading outcome is August 31 at 64% probability, with $30K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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