No clear favorite. Farage 70–80% leads at just 34%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farage 70–80% | 34% | +192% | $6K |
| 2 | Farage 60–70% | 22% | +344% | $4K |
| 3 | Farage 80%+ | 16% | +506% | $10K |
| 4 | Farage 50–60% | 10% | +852% | $3K |
| 5 | Farage <40% BEST VALUE | 7% | +1279% | $2K |
| 6 | Farage 40–50% | 5% | +1962% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve accordin...
This prediction market tracks whether Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote % will occur, with $26K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Farage 70–80% leads at only 34% across 6 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours alone (40% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-06-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 12, 2026 at 03:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Farage 70–80% at 34% probability, with $26K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms