The market strongly favors ↑ 1510 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ↑ 1510 | 100% | - | $3K |
| 2 | ↑ 1500 | 100% | - | $34K |
| 3 | ↑ 1520 | 67% | +50% | $47K |
| 4 | ↑ 1530 | 23% | +335% | $16K |
| 5 | ↑ 1540 | 17% | +487% | $6K |
| 6 | ↑ 1550 | 11% | +809% | $53K |
| 7 | ↑ 1600 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1567% | $26K |
| 8 | ↑ 1650 | 4% | +2122% | $9K |
| 9 | ↑ 1700 | 3% | +2799% | $9K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this...
This prediction market tracks whether Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31? will occur, with $203K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: ↑ 1510 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $15K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 15, 2026 at 19:05 UTC, the leading outcome is ↑ 1510 at 100% probability, with $203K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $203K, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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