The market strongly favors Farage 30%+ at 92%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farage 30%+ BEST VALUE | 92% | +8% | $21K |
| 2 | Farage 10-20% | 4% | +2369% | $305 |
| 3 | Count Binface | 3% | +3126% | $4K |
| 4 | Farage 20-30% | 3% | +3179% | $219 |
| 5 | Farage <10% | 3% | +3348% | $193 |
| 6 | Other | 1% | +12400% | $174 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve accordin...
This prediction market tracks whether Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory (Lower Farage brackets) will occur, with $26K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Farage 30%+ is priced at 92%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $8K traded in the last 24 hours alone (32% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-13. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 03, 2026 at 18:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Farage 30%+ at 92% probability, with $26K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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