Market is split — Farage 60%+ at 52%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farage 60%+ | 52% | +94% | $19K |
| 2 | Farage 40-60% | 36% | +175% | $6K |
| 3 | Farage 20-40% BEST VALUE | 9% | +1005% | $4K |
| 4 | Farage <20% | 3% | +3348% | $5K |
| 5 | Count Binface | 2% | +4248% | $4K |
| 6 | Other | 2% | +5305% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve accordin...
This prediction market tracks whether Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory will occur, with $45K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with Farage 60%+ leading at just 52%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (34% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-06-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 18, 2026 at 10:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Farage 60%+ at 52% probability, with $45K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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