This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 2 12:00 PM ET to April 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65-89 | 34% | $2K |
| 2 | 40-64 | 32% | $2K |
| 3 | 90-114 | 20% | $2K |
| 4 | 115-139 | 12% | $2K |
| 5 | <40 | 4% | $3K |
| 6 | 140-164 | 2% | $2K |
| 7 | 165-189 | 1% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 31, 2026 at 04:10 UTC, the leading outcome is 65-89 at 34% probability, with $29K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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