No clear favorite. Pause–Pause–Pause leads at just 28%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pause–Pause–Pause | 28% | +257% | $9K |
| 2 | Hike–Pause–Pause | 17% | +488% | $296 |
| 3 | Other | 12% | +770% | $139 |
| 4 | Pause–Pause–Hike | 10% | +852% | $210 |
| 5 | Hike–Hike–Pause | 10% | +953% | $237 |
| 6 | Pause–Hike–Pause | 8% | +1076% | $214 |
| 7 | Hike–Pause–Hike | 8% | +1150% | $314 |
| 8 | Pause–Hike–Hike BEST VALUE | 6% | +1567% | $197 |
| 9 | Hike–Hike–Hike | 4% | +2122% | $216 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOM...
This prediction market tracks whether Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) will occur, with $11K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by macroeconomic indicators, central bank signals, and market expectations.
No clear favorite has emerged — Pause–Pause–Pause leads at only 28% across 9 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $10K traded in the last 24 hours alone (91% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-09. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 04, 2026 at 15:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Pause–Pause–Pause at 28% probability, with $11K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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