25 bps increase leads at 66%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
High Volume — $1.0M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 bps increase | 66% | +53% | $283K |
| 2 | No change BEST VALUE | 32% | +217% | $206K |
| 3 | 25 bps decrease | 2% | +5305% | $216K |
| 4 | 50+ bps increase | 1% | +6797% | $159K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (F...
This prediction market tracks whether Fed Decision in December? will occur, with $1.0M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by macroeconomic indicators, central bank signals, and market expectations.
Traders lean toward 25 bps increase at 66%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Recent trading volume of $56K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-09. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 18, 2026 at 05:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 25 bps increase at 66% probability, with $1.0M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.0M, with $56K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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