December 31, 2026 leads at 64%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
High Volume — $1.5M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31, 2026 | 64% | +57% | $148K |
| 2 | November 30, 2026 | 60% | +67% | $6 |
| 3 | October 31, 2026 | 45% | +122% | $2K |
| 4 | September 30, 2026 | 35% | +186% | $257K |
| 5 | September 15, 2026 BEST VALUE | 7% | +1329% | $1K |
| 6 | August 31, 2026 | 1% | +7592% | $244K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to re...
This prediction market tracks whether GPT-6 released by…? will occur, with $1.5M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward December 31, 2026 at 64%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $29K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 22, 2026 at 10:15 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 64% probability, with $1.5M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.5M, with $29K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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