1430+ leads at 80%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1430+ | 80% | +26% | $5K |
| 2 | 1440+ | 58% | +71% | $15K |
| 3 | 1450+ | 41% | +144% | $9K |
| 4 | 1460+ | 40% | +150% | $5K |
| 5 | 1470+ BEST VALUE | 20% | +388% | $6K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Astra model (6.1+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified sc...
This prediction market tracks whether GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Debut? will occur, with $40K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward 1430+ at 80%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (33% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-07-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 26, 2026 at 21:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 1430+ at 80% probability, with $40K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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