The market strongly favors August 31 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | August 31 | 100% | +0% | $2K |
| 2 | July 31 | 99% | +1% | $11K |
| 3 | July 17 | 98% | +2% | $16K |
| 4 | July 10 | 96% | +4% | $2K |
| 5 | July 8 BEST VALUE | 64% | +55% | $220 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.4 refers to a product...
This prediction market tracks whether Grok 4.4 released by...? will occur, with $64K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: August 31 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (25% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 08, 2026 at 08:25 UTC, the leading outcome is August 31 at 100% probability, with $64K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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