Market is split — Jarrett Keohokalole at 58%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jarrett Keohokalole | 58% | +71% | $22K |
| 2 | Candidate A | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Candidate B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Candidate C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Candidate D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Candidate E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Candidate F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Ed Case BEST VALUE | 42% | +138% | $24K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 m...
This prediction market tracks whether HI-01 Democratic Primary Winner will occur, with $48K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with Jarrett Keohokalole leading at just 58%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $20K traded in the last 24 hours alone (42% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-08. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 09, 2026 at 04:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Jarrett Keohokalole at 58% probability, with $48K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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