The market strongly favors Jill Tokuda (D) at 96%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jill Tokuda (D) | 96% | +5% | $44K |
| 2 | Brenton Awa (R) | 4% | +2226% | $37K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm election...
This prediction market tracks whether HI-02 House Election Winner will occur, with $81K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Jill Tokuda (D) is priced at 96%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $10K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 13, 2026 at 03:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Jill Tokuda (D) at 96% probability, with $81K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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