5.40% leads at 77%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.40% | 77% | +30% | $7K |
| 2 | 5.45% | 67% | +49% | $9K |
| 3 | 5.50% | 52% | +94% | $3K |
| 4 | 5.55% | 34% | +190% | $3K |
| 5 | 5.60% | 28% | +264% | $3K |
| 6 | 5.65% | 14% | +590% | $6K |
| 7 | 5.70% | 9% | +1011% | $3K |
| 8 | 5.80% BEST VALUE | 5% | +1861% | $10K |
| 9 | 6.00% | 4% | +2226% | $3K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will reso...
This prediction market tracks whether How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027? will occur, with $47K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by macroeconomic indicators, central bank signals, and market expectations.
Traders lean toward 5.40% at 77%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (24% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 22, 2026 at 04:15 UTC, the leading outcome is 5.40% at 77% probability, with $47K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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