The market strongly favors 4.70% at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.70% | 100% | - | $1K |
| 2 | 4.75% | 100% | - | $456 |
| 3 | 4.80% | 100% | - | $3K |
| 4 | 4.85% | 100% | - | $2K |
| 5 | 4.90% | 100% | - | $3K |
| 6 | 4.95% | 100% | - | $3K |
| 7 | 5.00% | 100% | - | $7K |
| 8 | 5.10% | 93% | +8% | $35K |
| 9 | 5.25% BEST VALUE | 68% | +47% | $28K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resol...
This prediction market tracks whether How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027? will occur, with $82K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by macroeconomic indicators, central bank signals, and market expectations.
The market shows strong consensus: 4.70% is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $11K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 08, 2026 at 10:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 4.70% at 100% probability, with $82K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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