No clear favorite. 5.0% leads at just 4%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.0% | 4% | +2281% | $146K |
| 2 | 5.5% | 2% | +4067% | $210K |
| 3 | 7.0% | 1% | +9424% | $37K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the B...
This prediction market tracks whether How high will US unemployment go in 2026? will occur, with $543K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by macroeconomic indicators, central bank signals, and market expectations.
No clear favorite has emerged — 5.0% leads at only 4% across 3 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $18K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-04-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 29, 2026 at 13:55 UTC, the leading outcome is 5.0% at 4% probability, with $543K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $543K, with $18K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms