2 (50 bps) leads at 72%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
High Volume — $1.4M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 (50 bps) | 72% | +39% | $227K |
| 2 | 1 (25 bps) | 28% | +264% | $632K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled...
This prediction market tracks whether How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? will occur, with $1.4M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by macroeconomic indicators, central bank signals, and market expectations.
Traders lean toward 2 (50 bps) at 72%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Recent trading volume of $84K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 30, 2026 at 06:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 2 (50 bps) at 72% probability, with $1.4M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.4M, with $84K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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