No clear favorite. 0 (0 bps) leads at just 36%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 (0 bps) | 36% | +174% | $35K |
| 2 | 1 (25 bps) | 32% | +217% | $15K |
| 3 | 2 (50 bps) | 18% | +441% | $17K |
| 4 | 3 (75 bps) BEST VALUE | 5% | +1842% | $8K |
| 5 | 4 (100 bps) | 1% | +18082% | $4K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled...
This prediction market tracks whether How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? will occur, with $82K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by macroeconomic indicators, central bank signals, and market expectations.
No clear favorite has emerged — 0 (0 bps) leads at only 36% across 5 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (16% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 29, 2026 at 21:55 UTC, the leading outcome is 0 (0 bps) at 36% probability, with $82K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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