Market is split — 3 at 52%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 52% | +94% | $9K |
| 2 | 4 | 24% | +308% | $2K |
| 3 | 2 | 19% | +418% | $237 |
| 4 | 1 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $193 |
| 5 | 0 | 4% | +2253% | $95 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Bernie Sanders has endorsed Abdul El-Sayed, Cori Bush, William Lawrence, and Donavan McKinney in contested Senate and Congressional primary races that are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026. Thi...
This prediction market tracks whether How many of these Sanders endorsees will win their August 4 Primaries (Michigan and Missouri)? will occur, with $12K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with 3 leading at just 52%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 30, 2026 at 03:05 UTC, the leading outcome is 3 at 52% probability, with $12K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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