Mojtaba Khamenei leads at 71%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
High Volume — $14.4M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mojtaba Khamenei | 71% | +41% | $2.6M |
| 2 | Reza Pahlavi BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $259K |
| 3 | Abbas Araghchi | 3% | +2799% | $491K |
| 4 | No Head of State | 3% | +2841% | $776K |
| 5 | Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 2% | +4445% | $454K |
| 6 | Hassan Khomeini | 1% | +7900% | $1.1M |
| 7 | Hassan Rouhani | 1% | +7900% | $572K |
| 8 | Alireza Arafi | 1% | +7900% | $1.9M |
| 9 | Masoud Pezeshkian | 1% | +14186% | $626K |
| 10 | Mahmoud Ahmadinejad | 1% | +18082% | $429K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of th...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran leader end of 2026? will occur, with $14.4M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Mojtaba Khamenei at 71%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $21K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 08:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Mojtaba Khamenei at 71% probability, with $14.4M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $14.4M, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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