Mojtaba Khamenei leads at 75%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
High Volume — $34.7M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mojtaba Khamenei | 75% | +33% | $5.0M |
| 2 | No Head of State BEST VALUE | 8% | +1135% | $1.0M |
| 3 | Reza Pahlavi | 4% | +2339% | $566K |
| 4 | Ahmad Vahidi | 2% | +3900% | $643K |
| 5 | Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 2% | +4248% | $796K |
| 6 | Alireza Arafi | 1% | +7592% | $2.2M |
| 7 | Abbas Araghchi | 1% | +9424% | $749K |
| 8 | Muhammad Mirbaqiri | 1% | +12400% | $420K |
| 9 | Hassan Khomeini | 1% | +16567% | $1.3M |
| 10 | Masoud Pezeshkian | 1% | +16567% | $899K |
| 11 | Hassan Rouhani | 1% | +16567% | $893K |
| 12 | Mahmoud Ahmadinejad | 1% | +18082% | $1.0M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of th...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran leader end of 2026? will occur, with $34.7M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Mojtaba Khamenei at 75%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $368K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 25, 2026 at 10:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Mojtaba Khamenei at 75% probability, with $34.7M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $34.7M, with $368K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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