No clear favorite. 170-189 leads at just 34%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 170-189 | 34% | +199% | - |
| 2 | 210-229 | 32% | +217% | $9K |
| 3 | 190-209 | 31% | +223% | - |
| 4 | <170 BEST VALUE | 26% | +292% | - |
| 5 | 230+ | 26% | +292% | $13K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive....
This prediction market tracks whether How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31? will occur, with $21K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — 170-189 leads at only 34% across 5 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-06. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 29, 2026 at 15:45 UTC, the leading outcome is 170-189 at 34% probability, with $21K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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