The market strongly favors August 22 at 96%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | August 22 | 96% | +5% | $14K |
| 2 | August 25 | 92% | +8% | $3K |
| 3 | August 31 | 82% | +21% | $13K |
| 4 | September 15 | 68% | +46% | $2K |
| 5 | September 30 BEST VALUE | 52% | +90% | $7K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”...
This prediction market tracks whether US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? will occur, with $39K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: August 22 is priced at 96%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $39K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 18, 2026 at 21:15 UTC, the leading outcome is August 22 at 96% probability, with $39K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms