25-49 leads at 60%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25-49 | 60% | +65% | $11K |
| 2 | <25 | 31% | +223% | $15K |
| 3 | 50-74 BEST VALUE | 8% | +1083% | $9K |
| 4 | 75-99 | 1% | +15285% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive. Tran...
This prediction market tracks whether How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 17? will occur, with $42K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
Traders lean toward 25-49 at 60%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours alone (44% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-23. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 22, 2026 at 20:25 UTC, the leading outcome is 25-49 at 60% probability, with $42K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms