No clear favorite. 175-199 leads at just 36%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 175-199 | 36% | +182% | $3K |
| 2 | 200-224 | 20% | +400% | $3K |
| 3 | 150-174 | 18% | +456% | $4K |
| 4 | 225+ | 13% | +669% | $5K |
| 5 | <150 BEST VALUE | 12% | +770% | $3K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 6, 2026, through July 12, 2026, inclusive....
This prediction market tracks whether How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? will occur, with $18K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — 175-199 leads at only 36% across 5 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (70% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-12. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 07, 2026 at 04:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 175-199 at 36% probability, with $18K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms