No clear favorite. 25-29 leads at just 39%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25-29 | 39% | +156% | $5K |
| 2 | 30-34 | 36% | +182% | $5K |
| 3 | 20-24 | 14% | +641% | $6K |
| 4 | 35-39 | 8% | +1233% | $5K |
| 5 | <20 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1686% | $14K |
| 6 | 40+ | 2% | +5961% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 5, 2026, through October 11, 2026, inclusive. Tra...
This prediction market tracks whether How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5? will occur, with $39K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — 25-29 leads at only 39% across 6 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (29% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-12. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 12, 2026 at 22:55 UTC, the leading outcome is 25-29 at 39% probability, with $39K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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