The market strongly favors No Hormuz Agreement at 90%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No Hormuz Agreement | 90% | +12% | $99K |
| 2 | Hormuz Agreement; D Senate BEST VALUE | 6% | +1438% | $112K |
| 3 | Hormuz Agreement; R Senate | 4% | +2640% | $166K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; R Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2...
This prediction market tracks whether Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23? will occur, with $377K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: No Hormuz Agreement is priced at 90%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $384K traded in the last 24 hours alone (102% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 11, 2026 at 19:45 UTC, the leading outcome is No Hormuz Agreement at 90% probability, with $377K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $377K, with $384K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms