Market is split — December 31 at 44%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
High Volume — $7.1M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 44% | +130% | $765K |
| 2 | June 30 | 16% | +545% | $1.7M |
| 3 | May 31 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $827K |
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge b...
As of May 15, 2026 at 00:35 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 44% probability, with $7.1M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $7.1M, with $41K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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