No clear favorite. December 31 leads at just 20%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $16.9M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 BEST VALUE | 20% | +413% | $1.9M |
| 2 | July 31 | 3% | +3409% | $848K |
| 3 | June 30 | 1% | +18082% | $5.4M |
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge b...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? will occur, with $16.9M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31 leads at only 20% across 3 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $96K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 29, 2026 at 03:05 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 20% probability, with $16.9M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $16.9M, with $96K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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