No clear favorite. August 31 leads at just 30%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | August 31 | 30% | +239% | $4K |
| 2 | July 15 | 10% | +953% | $26K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for pa...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? will occur, with $30K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — August 31 leads at only 30% across 2 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (50% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 28, 2026 at 13:15 UTC, the leading outcome is August 31 at 30% probability, with $30K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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