No clear favorite. August 31 leads at just 32%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | August 31 | 32% | +208% | $3K |
| 2 | July 31 | 24% | +308% | $3K |
| 3 | July 15 | 14% | +614% | $6K |
| 4 | June 30 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1462% | $42K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherw...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran full airspace closure by...? will occur, with $54K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — August 31 leads at only 32% across 4 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $41K traded in the last 24 hours alone (77% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 27, 2026 at 11:55 UTC, the leading outcome is August 31 at 32% probability, with $54K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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