No clear favorite. December 31 leads at just 34%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $13.6M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 34% | +190% | $2.4M |
| 2 | June 30 | 14% | +641% | $1.1M |
| 3 | May 31 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $1.9M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, th...
As of May 15, 2026 at 20:05 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 34% probability, with $13.6M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $13.6M, with $52K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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