No clear favorite. June 30, 2027 leads at just 25%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $23.4M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30, 2027 | 25% | +300% | $233K |
| 2 | December 31 | 18% | +441% | $4.0M |
| 3 | November 30 | 14% | +641% | $9K |
| 4 | October 31 | 10% | +852% | $8K |
| 5 | September 30 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1438% | $437K |
| 6 | August 31 | 3% | +3674% | $1.1M |
| 7 | August 22 | 1% | +10426% | $23K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, th...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran leadership change by...? will occur, with $23.4M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — June 30, 2027 leads at only 25% across 7 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $47K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 13, 2026 at 23:35 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 25% probability, with $23.4M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $23.4M, with $47K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms