This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 46% | $854K |
| 2 | June 30 | 36% | $16K |
| 3 | May 31 | 28% | $44K |
| 4 | April 30 | 16% | $1.4M |
| 5 | March 31 | 1% | $3.0M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 21:50 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 46% probability, with $5.3M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $5.3M, with $125K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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