No clear favorite. July 31 leads at just 22%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $19.0M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 31 | 22% | +346% | $207 |
| 2 | December 31 | 15% | +567% | $3.0M |
| 3 | September 30 BEST VALUE | 8% | +1076% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, th...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran leadership change by...? will occur, with $19.0M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — July 31 leads at only 22% across 3 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $358K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 29, 2026 at 21:55 UTC, the leading outcome is July 31 at 22% probability, with $19.0M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $19.0M, with $358K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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