August 31 leads at 82%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | August 31 | 82% | +23% | $5K |
| 2 | July 31 | 64% | +57% | $4K |
| 3 | July 15 | 41% | +144% | $10K |
| 4 | July 8 BEST VALUE | 24% | +326% | $6K |
| 5 | July 1 | 1% | +6797% | $3K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwi...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran successfully targets shipping by...? will occur, with $27K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
Traders lean toward August 31 at 82%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours alone (75% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 01, 2026 at 23:25 UTC, the leading outcome is August 31 at 82% probability, with $27K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms