No clear favorite. August 31 leads at just 24%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | August 31 | 24% | +308% | $16K |
| 2 | August 18 | 21% | +376% | $4K |
| 3 | August 13 | 15% | +567% | $2K |
| 4 | July 31 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1438% | $29K |
| 5 | June 30 | 1% | +11011% | $15K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regardi...
This prediction market tracks whether US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? will occur, with $64K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — August 31 leads at only 24% across 5 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $82K traded in the last 24 hours alone (128% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 22, 2026 at 01:45 UTC, the leading outcome is August 31 at 24% probability, with $64K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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