No clear favorite. December 31 leads at just 34%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $13.4M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 34% | +190% | $1.2M |
| 2 | September 30 BEST VALUE | 12% | +770% | $937K |
| 3 | August 31 | 3% | +3348% | $3.6M |
| 4 | August 18 | 2% | +4067% | $2.1M |
| 5 | August 13 | 1% | +9900% | $935K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regardi...
This prediction market tracks whether US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? will occur, with $13.4M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31 leads at only 34% across 5 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $149K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 06, 2026 at 03:35 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 34% probability, with $13.4M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $13.4M, with $149K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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