This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | March 18 | 100% | - |
| 2 | March 21 | 100% | - |
| 3 | March 23 | 100% | - |
| 4 | March 24 | 100% | $68K |
| 5 | March 25 | 100% | - |
| 6 | March 27 | 100% | $22K |
| 7 | March 30 | 100% | $9K |
| 8 | March 31 | 71% | $841 |
| 9 | March 29 | 50% | $5K |
| 10 | March 28 | 16% | $18K |
| 11 | March 26 | 1% | $23K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 22:00 UTC, the leading outcome is March 18 at 100% probability, with $146K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $146K, with $38K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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